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Kevin Warsh

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11 Sept

Bitcoin Suisse to cut up to 50% of Swiss staff in major restructuring push

Bitcoin Suisse's restructuring highlights a strategic shift towards global expansion and institutional focus, reflecting broader industry trends.

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159 sources12 Sept

NFT sales rise 6.8% to $46.8M as Bitcoin trades surge

2 sources8 Sept

FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50%

2 sources28 Aug

Bitcoin Drops Below $78,000 After Warsh Speech

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XRP Takes a Hit Fed Hikes & CLARITY Fails, But Are We panicking?

👋 Hey everyone, hi and thanks to my fellow rocks for joining in as always! Today we are diving into some intense price action for XRP following a chaotic 24 hours in Washington and macroeconomics, so let's break down exactly what is happening to the charts and what it means for our portfolios. As always, thanks for tuning in with me. 🚨 The U.S. cryptocurrency market faced dual headwinds as the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 vote, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold required to pass. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, bringing the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. These developments triggered a broad digital asset selloff, with XRP sliding roughly 10% to trade near the $1.28 level. 📉 Looking straight at the technicals, XRP took a sharp 10% tumble down to around $1.28, completely erasing its recent upward momentum. The immediate focus for bulls right now is holding the line at the critical 50-day moving average, which sits right around $1.21. If we get a daily close below that level, things could get messy with a potential slide down toward the downside support zones near $1.10 or even $0.88, while key overhead resistance remains heavy near the $1.39 to $1.45 range. 📉 Our next technical is that descending channel which we've already been watching in previous ideas. Was helping us out but once we lost our grip it became a resistance rather than a support and following that last re-entry into the channel we managed to break out the channel though that was thanks to sentiment and hype before the clarity act decision. Can see just what kind of impact the clarity act had on the 15th following the news as we quickly exited the channel and saw a steep drop in much of the crypto market and XRP. 🏛 Beyond the charts, the real drivers behind today's flush are coming from major fundamental and macroeconomic shifts. First, the crypto-specific blow landed when the Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, which fell short of the 60-vote threshold in a tight 49-50 split, effectively shelving comprehensive federal crypto market regulations for the near future. On top of that, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC delivered a hawkish surprise by unanimously voting to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% range, marking the first rate hike since 2023 and adding immense macro pressure to all risk assets. We already understand the market favors low interest rates so this definitely is something to keep in mind. 💡 But before anyone panics, we have to look at the silver lining that sets XRP apart from the rest of the crypto market. While the failure of the CLARITY Act hurts industry-wide regulation, XRP already stands on settled legal ground because of its landmark 2023 court victory and the subsequent March 2026 joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC classifying it as a digital commodity. With five spot XRP ETFs actively trading in the U.S. and institutional plumbing adopting the token, today’s crash is a short-term reaction to legislative delays and a hawkish Fed, rather than a threat to XRP's underlying legal status. ✨ That wraps up today's analysis, and I want to give a massive thanks to everyone for tuning in and staying on top of these wild markets with me. If you found this breakdown helpful, please make sure to leave a like and follow for more daily updates so you never miss a beat—stay safe out there, and I'll catch you in the next one! Best regards, ~ Rock '

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

Bitcoin Holds $75K After the Fed — Is $80K Next?

Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) experienced sharp volatility after the Federal Funds Rate was released at 4.00%, in line with expectations, followed by remarks from Kevin Warsh. Unlike gold and U.S. stock indices—particularly the S&P 500—Bitcoin has so far managed to hold inside its Support Zone and avoid a similarly sharp decline. Can BTC defend $75,000 and turn this relative strength into another move toward $80,000? Macro Outlook Nearly $1 billion in long positions could be liquidated around $74,860, making this an important downside liquidity area to monitor. Bitcoin could also remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, movements in the S&P 500, and gold price action. Technical Analysis Bitcoin is currently trading inside the Support Zone and near Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($74,680-$73,800). A valid Golden Cross has also formed between the 50_SMA(Daily) and 200_SMA(Daily), which could support the broader bullish structure. 💡 Educational Note: A Golden Cross forms when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average and is generally considered a bullish trend signal, although price confirmation remains important. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin’s structure over the past 12 days appears more corrective than impulsively bearish, suggesting that another bullish move could develop. I expect Bitcoin to move higher over the coming hours. If BTC breaks above the key trading level of $77,280, further upside could develop toward $78,370 and eventually the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage. As long as Bitcoin remains above $73,500, the bullish scenario remains valid. Trade Setup First Take Profit(TP): $76,990 Second Take Profit(TP): $78,370 Third Take Profit(TP): Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($80,700-$79,800) Stop Loss(SL): $73,500(Worst) Key Trading Level: $77,280 New CME Gap: $79,270-$79,110 Do you think Bitcoin can hold above $75,000? 🟢 Yes 🔴 No 📌 Bitcoin Analysis(BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position. 🚀 If this analysis helps your trading plan, a BOOST would help more traders discover it.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

TOTAL vs US Real Yields: Fed Decision Watch

Why does tonight's Fed decision matter for crypto? It isn't really about a 25 bp hike — the market has largely priced it in. The real question: what happens to US real yields and the dollar after the decision? 📊 WHERE CRYPTO STANDS (pre-decision) - Total crypto market cap: ~$2.64T (Sep 15), BTC dominance ~58%. - BTC: ~$75.7K, roughly 40% below its October 2025 all-time high. - Fear & Greed: dropped from 69 (Greed) to 51 (Neutral) in one day. - Extra headwind: the CLARITY Act failed its Senate procedural vote on Sep 15 — a major regulatory catalyst delayed. - ETF context: US spot BTC ETFs took in ~$3.5B in August, BTC's best month since Nov 2024 — but early September already saw outflows. 📊 US MACRO SNAPSHOT - Jobs: +162K in August vs 53K expected. Unemployment 4.1%. - Inflation: headline CPI 3.4%, mostly energy-driven. Core CPI 2.4%, lowest since 2021, but the monthly core print came in hot. - Retail sales (today): +1.2% vs +0.8% expected; control group +1.4% vs +0.4%. Bottom line: the economy is holding up, inflation is sticky because of oil, and the Fed is under pressure to tighten. 🔍 THE INDICATOR I'M WATCHING: DFII10 DFII10 is the 10-year US Treasury real yield — the return after expected inflation. - 2.60% (Sep 14 close), up from 2.43% a week earlier. - Nominal 10Y closed at 5.00% on Sep 15, the highest close since 2007. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1FkRtn1T/ Key point: breakeven inflation is roughly flat near 2.4%. Yields aren't rising on inflation fears — real yields themselves are climbing. Why crypto cares : BTC pays no yield. When investors can earn a 2.6% real return in a risk-free dollar asset, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding, high-volatility assets rises. Rising real yields usually mean: - Tighter dollar liquidity. - Weaker risk appetite and slower ETF inflows. - Lower tolerance for leverage → larger liquidation cascades. - Altcoins typically take a bigger hit than BTC (higher beta). 🎯 WHAT'S PRICED IN? - Futures price ~90% odds of a 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% — the first since July 2023. - Reuters poll (Sep 14): 86 of 101 economists expect a hike; 37 of 70 expect at least one more by end-March 2027. - Futures price roughly 4 hikes through July 2027. 🏦 WARSH & THE FED - July: held 9–3, three dissenters wanted a hike. - Jackson Hole: Warsh avoids advance commitments to markets, but said the Fed "has work to do" if core inflation doesn't fall fast enough. Hike odds jumped from 34% to 57% afterward. 🏛 POLITICAL PRESSURE The White House says a hike isn't necessary — that argues for a hold, not a cut. Cuts aren't in current pricing. My view: cuts could return later if the labor market weakens clearly, oil drops sharply, or 5%+ yields start breaking financing conditions. A hold tonight isn't risk-free: Deutsche Bank says it would be the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled meeting since 1994. If read as political capitulation, long-end yields could rise anyway. 💭 WHAT COULD ACTUALLY MOVE MARKETS - Dot plot: June signaled one hike in 2026. An extra hike = a tightening cycle. - Dissents and updated projections. - The reaction in DFII10, US10Y and DXY during the press conference — crypto often trades the presser, not the headline. 🌏 DON'T IGNORE JAPAN The BoJ is expected to lift rates to a 31-year high. A stronger yen can force unwinds of yen-funded carry trades — the same mechanism behind the sharp crypto sell-off in August 2024. 🔀 POST-DECISION SCENARIOS 1️⃣ Hike 25 + DFII10 stable/falling → "sell the rumor, buy the news" relief; supportive for TOTAL. 2️⃣ Hike 25 + hawkish dots + DFII10 above 2.50% → pressure; alts likely underperform BTC. 3️⃣ Surprise hold → sharp initial pump that may fade if bonds read it as soft on inflation. 4️⃣ Hike 50 → very unlikely, clear risk-off shock and liquidation risk. ✅ WHAT TO WATCH AFTER THE DECISION - DFII10: back below 2.50%, or holding above? - US10Y: sustaining above 5%? - DXY: ~99.7 — a break above 100 is a warning sign. - BTC dominance: rising dominance = defensive rotation out of alts. - ETF flows on Thursday and Friday. Easing yields and dollar = breathing room for crypto. Holding above these levels = pressure persists. ⏰ Decision: 2:00 PM ET (18:00 UTC). Press conference: 2:30 PM ET. Data as of Sep 16, 2026, before the decision. Educational content, not investment advice.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept
TI

The Timeline Broke, Not the Crypto Thesis

Ahead of the Fed Decision Bitcoin has just absorbed one major shock and is about to face another: **the CLARITY vote failed, and the Fed decides in hours.** On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The official vote was **49–50**, below the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. This was a procedural failure to move the bill forward, not a final vote rejecting the bill itself. That distinction matters. Near-term regulatory certainty has been pushed further out. But one failed procedural vote does not, by itself, invalidate the longer-term case for digital assets. The market reaction helps show what was actually repriced. ## The Relative Damage Tells the Story Bitcoin fell about 4% after the Senate setback. Coinbase and Circle fell roughly 9% — about twice as much. That relative performance is important. If this were primarily a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin itself, Bitcoin should be at the center of the damage. Instead, assets with much greater exposure to U.S. regulatory outcomes were hit harder. That suggests at least part of the selloff was a **regulatory-premium adjustment**. For months, markets had increasingly priced in the possibility that comprehensive U.S. crypto rules were getting closer. When that timeline suddenly became less certain, companies whose business models depend heavily on U.S. regulatory clarity absorbed the larger shock. Bitcoin was pulled lower with them. But the Bitcoin network itself did not change because of the Senate vote. So the real question is not whether CLARITY was bad news. It clearly was for the near-term policy timeline. The question is whether the market is simply repricing that expectation — or beginning a broader structural breakdown. ## Regulation Has Slowed, Not Stopped Near-term congressional passage is now significantly more difficult. But the regulatory process has not returned to zero. The SEC proposed **Regulation Crypto Assets** in August, creating a tailored framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has also said congressional legislation remains important for establishing more durable rules. So there are still two separate tracks: **Congressional legislation has slowed. Administrative rulemaking continues.** That does not guarantee CLARITY — in its current form or another form — will pass on any particular timetable. It simply means the Senate setback should be understood mainly as a delay in regulatory certainty, not evidence that the entire U.S. regulatory direction has reversed. For markets, timing matters. But timing and direction are not the same thing. ## The Fed Is the Second Test **The FOMC decision lands in hours. Markets are pricing a 25bp hike. What matters is what comes next.** The Fed releases its decision at **2:00 p.m. ET**, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at **2:30 p.m. ET**. Markets currently assign roughly a **93% probability** to a 25-basis-point increase, taking the target range to **3.75%–4.00%**. Because the hike itself is heavily priced, the bigger variables are: * whether policymakers signal further tightening this year; * how concerned they remain about inflation; * how the Fed treats elevated energy prices; * and whether Warsh keeps future policy data-dependent or signals a more persistent hiking cycle. This matters because Bitcoin is not dealing with the CLARITY setback in isolation. The market is simultaneously removing regulatory optimism, reducing leverage and preparing for tighter monetary policy. That combination can produce a much larger short-term move than any single headline. ## Is This a Constructive Reset? It is too early to call the current decline a bottom. A constructive reset has to produce evidence. Over the next **48–72 hours**, four things matter. ### 1. Bitcoin Stops Making Impulsive New Lows Bitcoin does not need an immediate V-shaped recovery. But once the FOMC reaction has been fully absorbed, continued aggressive new lows would weaken the reset interpretation. Stabilization matters more than the first rebound. ### 2. Regulatory-Sensitive Assets Stop Underperforming Coinbase and Circle were hit roughly twice as hard as Bitcoin in the initial reaction. If that gap begins to narrow, it would suggest much of the regulatory premium has already been removed. If the gap keeps widening, the repricing is probably not finished. ### 3. Leverage Cools Without Another Disorderly Flush A healthy reset removes crowded positioning and allows the market to rebuild from a cleaner base. Cooling leverage followed by stable prices would be constructive. Weak prices combined with rapidly rebuilding leverage would not. ### 4. Bitcoin Absorbs the Fed The first move after an FOMC announcement is often noisy. The better signal comes after the statement, projections and press conference have all been digested. If Bitcoin can absorb both the regulatory disappointment and the Fed without starting another impulsive leg lower, the constructive-reset argument becomes much stronger. If it cannot, the correction probably has further to run. ## What Matters From Here The CLARITY vote changed something real: **the path toward near-term U.S. regulatory clarity became harder.** But the market now has to determine how much of that disappointment was already priced during the selloff — and whether the Fed adds a second layer of pressure. For short-term traders, the next 48–72 hours matter more than the last 48. Watch price stabilization, relative performance, leverage and the post-FOMC reaction. For longer-term investors, the more important question is different: Are institutional participation, regulatory development and the integration of digital assets into the financial system actually reversing? One failed procedural vote is not enough evidence to answer yes. The current move therefore deserves respect, but not an automatic conclusion that the broader crypto thesis has failed. **By tomorrow we'll know whether this is a one-punch or two-punch correction.** **Today, the evidence says the timeline broke, not the thesis.**

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

BITCOIN Clarity Act FAILED. Another Shock-another Top? Fed ahead

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw the Clarity Act failing again and now the market focus shifts towards today's Fed Rate Decision and more importantly Chair Warsh's tone during the Press Conference. In the very probable event that the Fed hikes, if Warsh sets the narrative for more upcoming hikes, those news can act as a catalyst to confirm the technical bias. Which following the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection, are bearish. In fact, every BTC market Top (and subsequent Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle) since last October, had a similar catalyst (set of macro events/ news) that confirmed the Top and kick-started the bearish reversal and sell-off (technical Bearish Leg) that followed. Notice also that even their 1D RSI patterns have been similar, all starting on overbought (RSI > 70.00) territory. October 2025 was due to the U.S. - China tariff escalation. January 2026 evolved around tariffs leading to massive ETF outflows. May 2026 formed on hot CPI, PPI readings on rising yields. The last two Lower Highs in particular formed a Resistance Zone (red). Similarly the last Lows (June 2026) have formed a Support Zone. This is critical as the first line of defense on this Support Zone is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), sitting exactly on its top. As a result, if the Fed confirms today the 1W MA50 rejection, the fair technical Target of a potential new Bearish Leg would be the 1W MA200 at around $66000. A -30.38% total drop, same as May-June, would price that closer to $57200. Do you think the Fed can trigger such drop today or BTC will break and close above its 1W MA50 and confirm the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept