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Federal Open Market Committee

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11 Sept

Bitcoin Suisse to cut up to 50% of Swiss staff in major restructuring push

Bitcoin Suisse's restructuring highlights a strategic shift towards global expansion and institutional focus, reflecting broader industry trends.

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69 sources12 Sept

BTC Settles at $77K After a Wild Ride, ETH Slumps Following Major Rally: Weekend Watch

6 sources15 Sept

Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for first time since 2023, signals more to come

2 sources8 Sept

FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50%

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XRP Takes a Hit Fed Hikes & CLARITY Fails, But Are We panicking?

👋 Hey everyone, hi and thanks to my fellow rocks for joining in as always! Today we are diving into some intense price action for XRP following a chaotic 24 hours in Washington and macroeconomics, so let's break down exactly what is happening to the charts and what it means for our portfolios. As always, thanks for tuning in with me. 🚨 The U.S. cryptocurrency market faced dual headwinds as the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 vote, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold required to pass. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, bringing the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. These developments triggered a broad digital asset selloff, with XRP sliding roughly 10% to trade near the $1.28 level. 📉 Looking straight at the technicals, XRP took a sharp 10% tumble down to around $1.28, completely erasing its recent upward momentum. The immediate focus for bulls right now is holding the line at the critical 50-day moving average, which sits right around $1.21. If we get a daily close below that level, things could get messy with a potential slide down toward the downside support zones near $1.10 or even $0.88, while key overhead resistance remains heavy near the $1.39 to $1.45 range. 📉 Our next technical is that descending channel which we've already been watching in previous ideas. Was helping us out but once we lost our grip it became a resistance rather than a support and following that last re-entry into the channel we managed to break out the channel though that was thanks to sentiment and hype before the clarity act decision. Can see just what kind of impact the clarity act had on the 15th following the news as we quickly exited the channel and saw a steep drop in much of the crypto market and XRP. 🏛 Beyond the charts, the real drivers behind today's flush are coming from major fundamental and macroeconomic shifts. First, the crypto-specific blow landed when the Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, which fell short of the 60-vote threshold in a tight 49-50 split, effectively shelving comprehensive federal crypto market regulations for the near future. On top of that, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC delivered a hawkish surprise by unanimously voting to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% range, marking the first rate hike since 2023 and adding immense macro pressure to all risk assets. We already understand the market favors low interest rates so this definitely is something to keep in mind. 💡 But before anyone panics, we have to look at the silver lining that sets XRP apart from the rest of the crypto market. While the failure of the CLARITY Act hurts industry-wide regulation, XRP already stands on settled legal ground because of its landmark 2023 court victory and the subsequent March 2026 joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC classifying it as a digital commodity. With five spot XRP ETFs actively trading in the U.S. and institutional plumbing adopting the token, today’s crash is a short-term reaction to legislative delays and a hawkish Fed, rather than a threat to XRP's underlying legal status. ✨ That wraps up today's analysis, and I want to give a massive thanks to everyone for tuning in and staying on top of these wild markets with me. If you found this breakdown helpful, please make sure to leave a like and follow for more daily updates so you never miss a beat—stay safe out there, and I'll catch you in the next one! Best regards, ~ Rock '

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

ETH: Why This Range Trade Still Favors the Bulls

While the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow sold off following this week's FOMC rate decision, Ethereum held firm. That divergence is a signal. In this breakdown we walk through our two foundational tools, Previous Period High/Low/Mid/Close and PriceMap, to build and stress test a market thesis in real time. Price is holding above its monthly directional, the classic pivot that defines trend bias. With the R level sitting beneath the market, sentiment reads bullish. As long as the R level acts as a support floor rather than flipping to a resistance ceiling, the uptrend structure stays intact. The near term trigger is the previous week's low. Holding above it, even as broader risk assets sell off, signals underlying strength and keeps the bull case alive. Losing it doesn't kill the thesis, it just shifts the read toward the deeper monthly R level as the next area to reassess risk. Bottom line: this isn't about calling a breakout. It's about knowing exactly where the thesis breaks, and trading with that clarity instead of the noise.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

BTC 4H — support test after bearish move

BTC is now testing the key support area from the previous post around 75,590. The first idea was cautiously bearish, and price has moved into the expected decision zone. Now the important question is not whether BTC is weak — it is whether sellers can confirm a breakdown. AI agent reading: The agent shows bearish momentum is still active on the 4H chart. RSI is near 41.2, below the bearish threshold of 45, and the MACD histogram remains below zero. At the same time, the trend agent shows a grey zone: the 4H trend is forming, but not confirmed yet. BTC is also trading close to the 200 EMA area, which makes this support test more important. A confirmed 4H close below 75,590 would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. Until then, this remains a decision zone rather than a confirmed breakdown. If BTC holds this support and reclaims 78,000–79,000 on a 4H close, the bearish pressure weakens. Stronger bullish confirmation still requires BTC to reclaim and hold above 81,900. Macro context adds caution: BTC is trading below 76K ahead of the Fed rate decision, while options positioning shows increased demand for downside protection into FOMC. ⚠️ Not financial advice.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept
TI

BTCUSDT (BEARISH MOVE LOADING)

ANALYSIS :- As observed earlier, BTC moved higher from the 65K zone after testing the level multiple times and subsequently established a bullish market structure by forming Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs). However, bearish divergence developed on the RSI, which weakened the bullish momentum. Following the divergence, price lost momentum and started consolidating sideways rather than continuing to form new Higher Highs. At the current structure, there is a possibility of a downside breakout, which could lead to a retest of the 65K support zone. FUNDAMENTAL CATALYST :- The Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision is scheduled for September 16, 2026. The market's reaction will depend not only on the rate decision but also on the accompanying statement and forward guidance. If the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point rate hike and the decision is perceived as more hawkish than currently priced in, it could add downside pressure to risk assets such as BTC, potentially supporting a move toward the 65K zone.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept
TI

The Timeline Broke, Not the Crypto Thesis

Ahead of the Fed Decision Bitcoin has just absorbed one major shock and is about to face another: **the CLARITY vote failed, and the Fed decides in hours.** On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The official vote was **49–50**, below the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. This was a procedural failure to move the bill forward, not a final vote rejecting the bill itself. That distinction matters. Near-term regulatory certainty has been pushed further out. But one failed procedural vote does not, by itself, invalidate the longer-term case for digital assets. The market reaction helps show what was actually repriced. ## The Relative Damage Tells the Story Bitcoin fell about 4% after the Senate setback. Coinbase and Circle fell roughly 9% — about twice as much. That relative performance is important. If this were primarily a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin itself, Bitcoin should be at the center of the damage. Instead, assets with much greater exposure to U.S. regulatory outcomes were hit harder. That suggests at least part of the selloff was a **regulatory-premium adjustment**. For months, markets had increasingly priced in the possibility that comprehensive U.S. crypto rules were getting closer. When that timeline suddenly became less certain, companies whose business models depend heavily on U.S. regulatory clarity absorbed the larger shock. Bitcoin was pulled lower with them. But the Bitcoin network itself did not change because of the Senate vote. So the real question is not whether CLARITY was bad news. It clearly was for the near-term policy timeline. The question is whether the market is simply repricing that expectation — or beginning a broader structural breakdown. ## Regulation Has Slowed, Not Stopped Near-term congressional passage is now significantly more difficult. But the regulatory process has not returned to zero. The SEC proposed **Regulation Crypto Assets** in August, creating a tailored framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has also said congressional legislation remains important for establishing more durable rules. So there are still two separate tracks: **Congressional legislation has slowed. Administrative rulemaking continues.** That does not guarantee CLARITY — in its current form or another form — will pass on any particular timetable. It simply means the Senate setback should be understood mainly as a delay in regulatory certainty, not evidence that the entire U.S. regulatory direction has reversed. For markets, timing matters. But timing and direction are not the same thing. ## The Fed Is the Second Test **The FOMC decision lands in hours. Markets are pricing a 25bp hike. What matters is what comes next.** The Fed releases its decision at **2:00 p.m. ET**, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at **2:30 p.m. ET**. Markets currently assign roughly a **93% probability** to a 25-basis-point increase, taking the target range to **3.75%–4.00%**. Because the hike itself is heavily priced, the bigger variables are: * whether policymakers signal further tightening this year; * how concerned they remain about inflation; * how the Fed treats elevated energy prices; * and whether Warsh keeps future policy data-dependent or signals a more persistent hiking cycle. This matters because Bitcoin is not dealing with the CLARITY setback in isolation. The market is simultaneously removing regulatory optimism, reducing leverage and preparing for tighter monetary policy. That combination can produce a much larger short-term move than any single headline. ## Is This a Constructive Reset? It is too early to call the current decline a bottom. A constructive reset has to produce evidence. Over the next **48–72 hours**, four things matter. ### 1. Bitcoin Stops Making Impulsive New Lows Bitcoin does not need an immediate V-shaped recovery. But once the FOMC reaction has been fully absorbed, continued aggressive new lows would weaken the reset interpretation. Stabilization matters more than the first rebound. ### 2. Regulatory-Sensitive Assets Stop Underperforming Coinbase and Circle were hit roughly twice as hard as Bitcoin in the initial reaction. If that gap begins to narrow, it would suggest much of the regulatory premium has already been removed. If the gap keeps widening, the repricing is probably not finished. ### 3. Leverage Cools Without Another Disorderly Flush A healthy reset removes crowded positioning and allows the market to rebuild from a cleaner base. Cooling leverage followed by stable prices would be constructive. Weak prices combined with rapidly rebuilding leverage would not. ### 4. Bitcoin Absorbs the Fed The first move after an FOMC announcement is often noisy. The better signal comes after the statement, projections and press conference have all been digested. If Bitcoin can absorb both the regulatory disappointment and the Fed without starting another impulsive leg lower, the constructive-reset argument becomes much stronger. If it cannot, the correction probably has further to run. ## What Matters From Here The CLARITY vote changed something real: **the path toward near-term U.S. regulatory clarity became harder.** But the market now has to determine how much of that disappointment was already priced during the selloff — and whether the Fed adds a second layer of pressure. For short-term traders, the next 48–72 hours matter more than the last 48. Watch price stabilization, relative performance, leverage and the post-FOMC reaction. For longer-term investors, the more important question is different: Are institutional participation, regulatory development and the integration of digital assets into the financial system actually reversing? One failed procedural vote is not enough evidence to answer yes. The current move therefore deserves respect, but not an automatic conclusion that the broader crypto thesis has failed. **By tomorrow we'll know whether this is a one-punch or two-punch correction.** **Today, the evidence says the timeline broke, not the thesis.**

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

BTC: CLARITY Act Stalls — FOMC Is the Next Catalyst

In my Idea last week, I warned about the downside risk for BTC during the New Moon cycle , when Bitcoin was trading around $79K . That risk quickly materialized after the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the U.S. Senate, with the procedural vote falling short of the 60 votes required. BTC then entered a sharp decline. So, what’s next? The FOMC is now the next major catalyst. 🔘 Back to the chart: BTC has broken below the $75.5K Trading Range low and is currently hovering around the previous weekly low near $76K. For now, the structure remains unclear. 📈 Key Levels I'm Watching $81K–82.8K — Daily Bearish OB $79.5K — Fib Golden Pocket + H4 Bearish OB + VAH $77K — Trading Range POC (A daily reclaim above this level would make me bullish again.) $76K — Previous Week Low $72K–71K — Buy Zone All of these key levels and liquidity areas are marked on the chart. 🔴 Short Setups Since BTC has not confirmed a daily breakdown from the Trading Range, I remain cautious about chasing shorts. 1. Liquidity Sweep + SFP If price sweeps one of the key levels mentioned above and forms an SFP, I’ll consider a short entry. 2. Confirmed Daily Breakdown If BTC breaks below the $75K area on the daily timeframe with expanding volume, I’ll consider short exposure. Without that confirmation, I’m not interested in chasing the downside. 🟢 Long Setups I’ll look for longs after BTC reclaims the $76K Previous Week Low. If price can reclaim and hold above $77K, we could see another test of the $80K area. For me, $77 is the key short-term pivot. 🔘 FOMC Trading Plan I’m also currently participating in the KCGI Trading Competition. FOMC can produce violent two-way price action, so I’ll avoid chasing the first news candle. Instead, I’ll wait for price to react around these key levels and look for confirmation from the subsequent price action. Let’s see whether this FOMC gives us another clean opportunity. Structure first. Reaction second. Execution last.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

$BTC: Clarity Act bill rejected. What to expect?

BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P On yesterday's negative news, the price dropped lower, exactly as I expected. In previous reviews, I pointed out: for growth to continue, the price needs to sweep stops. We just needed a trigger. The price came exactly to the level where the position was added. But there is a catch: the overall news background is negative, and the level wasn't bought up right away. Now on the 🧩IMA analysis. 🐋Large players are still holding long positions. But the situation has turned dangerous. The spot market and ETFs are showing massive liquidity outflow after the Clarity Act rejection, plus the FOMC meeting. We might see another price drop. The nearest major level is the historical support 📊M-Levels $68500–$70700. For those who entered per my plan: in this situation, it is better to close the position at breakeven or pull the stop to $73820 (behind the weekly support). In case of closing, we can consider a re-entry: 1 Positive scenario: on a breakout and hold of the price above $76500. 2 Negative scenario: entry in the $68500–$70700 range. ⚠️If the idea was useful — glad to have your support 🚀. Analysis based on 🧩IMA (Integrated Market Analysis) 📊M-Levels — Institutional Interest Level (IIL) Platform restrictions don't allow publishing closed indicators. I only display the result of the 📊Levels algorithm.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

BTCUSD 1H: Fed Hike Day - Falling Channel Eyes $74K

BTCUSD is bleeding inside a statistically selected descending channel on the 1-hour chart, and tonight's FOMC decision could be the trigger that breaks its last support. MACRO TRIGGER The Fed announces its decision today at 2:00 PM ET. Markets price a ~93% chance of a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. Treasury yields sit at 52-week highs and energy prices keep inflation sticky. The hike itself is priced in: the real danger is a hawkish dot plot signaling more hikes. Higher yields drain liquidity from risk assets, and Bitcoin usually feels it first. INDICATOR CONFLUENCE - Adaptive Market Profile automatically selects the most linear trend window using Pearson correlation. With auto-selection enabled, a 2.0 deviation multiplier, logarithmic calculation and a distributed-volume profile, it now locks onto a short and steep window (L=50, R=0.894). The active channel points sharply lower, and volume is concentrated at the top of the move, where sellers took control. - S/R Ultimate is using pivot-based levels with 25 left bars, 10 right bars, 3 quick right bars and Close as its source. Its map shows a stacked resistance cluster at $76.50K-$76.65K and major supply at $79.20K. Below price, only one level is left: $75.40K. BEARISH SCENARIO As long as 1H closes remain below $76.50K, the base case is continued pressure on $75.40K. A clean loss of that level after the Fed would expose the lower adaptive channel near $74.00K, and post-FOMC volatility could make the move fast. BULLISH INVALIDATION A sustained 1H close above $76.65K would neutralize the immediate breakdown risk. A real structural reversal would require reclaiming the major supply at $79.20K. BOTTOM LINE One support left, one major catalyst tonight. If the Fed sounds hawkish and $75.40K gives way, $74K is the next stop.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

FOMC: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Hello everyone!☀️ Today, September 16, the main event is the FOMC meeting (US Federal Reserve), with the interest-rate decision being released today 🧨🧨🧨 The probability of a 25 bps rate hike has sharply increased to around 92% according to CME FedWatch. And here is an important nuance going into the Fed decision ❗️ Even before the rate decision, we have already been dragged from $79,590 to $74,880, breaking through the very important $76K level. So by the time we get to the FOMC, the market is already heavily repositioned to the downside 🐻 Therefore, if the Fed delivers exactly what is already almost fully priced in — +25 bps — BTC could see a relief move even with a rate hike. Because the question is no longer just “Will they hike?”, but rather what they say about further rate hikes and the Dot Plot. Reuters has also pointed out that the market is particularly focused on the Fed’s forward guidance. Let’s try to connect this event to the chart and map out the possible scenarios. 🟢🦬🚀Bullish scenario. If $75K + the 4H EMA 200 hold the price before the meeting and BTC reclaims $76K, then the wicks we saw yesterday during the US session and today at the Asian open could turn out to be exactly the liquidity sweep I was referring to earlier: «…we could potentially collect some decent liquidity — at $76,219 and $75,538, respectively.» In other words, this could simply be a shakeout of weak hands ahead of the event. For the bullish scenario to gain strength, I would then want to see BTC reclaim and consolidate above the midpoint of the trading range at $78K. 🔴🐻🪓Bearish scenario. If $75K + the 4H EMA 200 break before the meeting, the structure becomes significantly weaker, and the chart will likely react much more sharply to every word coming from the Fed. 🔴🔴🐻🪓🔪⚰️Bearish x2 scenario $75K + 4H EMA 200 break directly during FOMC + a hawkish Fed. In this case, $73,300 comes into play. Let’s see what the Fed brings us. Peace 🌄✊🏼 ⚠️ Disclaimer: All information shared on this channel is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice. The author is not responsible for your trading decisions. Always manage your risks and make decisions independently.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

Senate crypto clarity bill fails cloture vote, bitcoin slides

BTCUSD | 4H Technical Analysis — Sep 16, 2026 Bitcoin is under pressure after the US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the comprehensive crypto market structure bill the industry has spent years lobbying for. A procedural vote to bring the bill to the floor fell short 49 to 50, well below the 60 votes needed for cloture, plunging crypto-related stocks including Coinbase and reigniting uncertainty over whether the CFTC will ever gain the unified regulatory authority the industry has been seeking. The sell-off was compounded by broad risk aversion ahead of tomorrow's FOMC rate decision, with markets reluctant to add risk into a binary macro event on top of the fresh regulatory setback. BTCUSD spent nearly three months, June through mid-August, chopping in a wide 58,000 to 67,000 range before a sharp spike in late August drove price directly to 70,000 and beyond, clearing the entire range in a matter of days. That move extended into early September, with price tagging a high near 82,000 before rolling over into a descending channel that has been in place ever since. The channel's upper boundary has capped every bounce near 80,000 to 82,000, while the lower boundary running through 74,300 has held on each retest so far. Price is now trading around 76,000, with the fast EMA at 77,055 just below the slow EMA at 77,626, a mildly bearish signal that reflects the stalling momentum since the early September peak. RSI has fallen to 36.72, its lowest reading since the pre-breakout consolidation in July and August, showing the Senate news and FOMC anxiety are actively pressuring price rather than just causing a pause. The 74,300 level is the one that matters most right now. It is both the descending channel's lower trendline and the same shelf that has provided support on at least two prior tests since the channel formed, making it the clearest line between an orderly pullback and a deeper breakdown back toward the August range. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 78,000 (recently lost support) / 82,000 (early September high) / 86,000 Support: 74,300 (channel lower trendline, prior support) / 72,500 / 70,000 (breakout level from the August range) Bear case: The failed Clarity Act vote removes a key regulatory tailwind the market had been pricing in, and with the FOMC decision still pending tomorrow, positioning is likely to stay defensive. A break below 74,300 would confirm the descending channel is resolving lower rather than consolidating, opening a retest of 70,000 and potentially the top of the old 60,000 to 67,000 range if risk sentiment deteriorates further around the rate decision. Bull case: The Clarity Act failure was a procedural setback, not a permanent rejection, and legislative efforts of this kind typically get reintroduced rather than abandoned outright. If the FOMC decision tomorrow leans dovish or simply removes uncertainty, a bounce off 74,300 back above 78,000 would suggest the pullback was sentiment-driven rather than structural, keeping the broader uptrend from the August breakout intact. Bias is neutral to cautiously bearish while price holds below 78,000, with the FOMC decision tomorrow the more immediate catalyst than the crypto-specific regulatory news. The descending channel and falling RSI both argue for near-term weakness, but 74,300 has held before and remains the level that decides whether this is a routine pullback within an uptrend or the start of a larger correction back toward the summer range.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept