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11 Sept

Bitcoin Suisse to cut up to 50% of Swiss staff in major restructuring push

Bitcoin Suisse's restructuring highlights a strategic shift towards global expansion and institutional focus, reflecting broader industry trends.

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2 sources16 Sept

‘Go time’: SEC, CFTC prepare to push crypto rules as Clarity Act stalls in Senate

2 sources2 Sept

SEC Chair expects Senate to pass CLARITY Act on September 15

2 sources2 Sept

‘Crypto Capital of the World’: SEC Chair Expects Clarity Act to Pass This Month

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Bitcoin Macro Update: Dual-Scenario Framework & The 2023 Fractal

I jumped the gun... Images Below... Sell-side pressure from both monetary policy (a hawkish 25 bps Federal Reserve rate hike) and regulatory friction (Senate gridlock on the CLARITY Act alongside ongoing SEC enforcement overhang) has accelerated market volatility. High-timeframe market structure points to a structural higher-low retest, where both primary trading scenarios converge on the same execution floor. --- ### 📊 Dual-Scenario Cycle Framework **Scenario A: Macro 2023 Fractal Roadmap (4-Stage Sweep Sequence)** * 📉 **Stage 1 — The Bull Trap & Dynamic WMA Flush ` `:** Price drops lower to flush overleveraged longs, currently hovering directly over dynamic **SHM 63 WMA support ($75,000–$76,000)**. This localized drop acts as a bull trap, convincing weak hands that market structure has broken down before the next rotational move. * 🐻 **Stage 2 — The Bear Trap & Range-High Sweep:** A sudden upward pivot tricks overconfident bears who opened short positions at the WMA. Bulls regain full market control, triggering a rapid short squeeze that sweeps liquidity above the previous **$82,800–$84,000 range highs**. * 🎯 **Stage 3 — Post-Sweep Golden Zone Reset:** Having captured liquidity at the highs, price pulls back once more to perform a deep structural test of the **0.50–0.74 Golden Zone ($71,000–$72,000)**, holding dynamic **CIMA MA support** to establish a rock-solid macro higher-low. * 🚀 **Stage 4 — Parabolic Macro Breakout:** Defense of the dynamic CIMA floor resolves all range consolidation, launching price into blue-sky price discovery toward **$100,000+**. **Scenario B: Direct 4-Stage Liquidation Flush** * ⚡ **Stage 1 — Immediate Golden Zone Flush ` `:** Bypasses the Stage 2 overhead sweep entirely, executing an uninterrupted liquidation drop from current levels directly into the **$71,000–$72,000 Golden Zone** (0.50–0.74 retracement + CIMA support). * 🏛️ **Stage 2 — Institutional Base:** Absorption of sell-side pressure driven by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' proposed **Regulation Crypto Assets** framework, establishing a tight accumulation floor. * 📈 **Stage 3 — Bear Liquidation & SHM Reclaim:** Reclaim of the SHM 63 WMA traps overextended shorts and converts dynamic resistance back into support. * 🎯 **Stage 4 — Parabolic Price Discovery:** Expansion beyond the $82,800–$84,000 ceiling directly toward **$100,000+**. --- ### 🏛️ Macro Drivers: Dual Sell-Side Pressure vs. Executive Offset * 🦅 **Federal Reserve Monetary Tightening:** Today's 25 bps rate hike and upward dot-plot revision to 4.1% apply systematic discount-rate pressure across all high-beta risk assets, compressing liquidity. * 📜 **SEC & Legislative Friction:** Congress failing to pass the CLARITY Act alongside persistent SEC regulatory enforcement actions reinforces short-term sell-side headwinds. * ⚖️ **Executive Agency Offset:** SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' proposed **Regulation Crypto Assets** framework—offering fit-for-purpose token exemptions and an investment contract safe harbor—provides agency-level regulatory clarity. Institutional capital is positioned to leverage this executive framework to absorb sell-side volume inside our demand floor. --- ### 🛠️ Execution Strategy & Buy Confirmation Rules Price may temporarily drop through the **SHM 63 WMA** during a high-volatility flush. **Do not front-run the dip.** Long entry exposure requires price to push back up through the 63 WMA using one of three systematic triggers: 1. 🟢 **Reclaim + SHM BUY Signal:** Price reclaims the SHM 63 WMA and triggers an official indicator BUY signal. 2. 🕯️ **Full Candle Close Above 63 WMA:** A 4H or Daily candle closes firmly above the SHM 63 WMA. 3. 🔄 **Break & Retest Hold:** A clean breakout above the SHM 63 WMA followed by a successful retest that holds as new dynamic support. --- ### 🗺️ Strategic Liquidity Roadmap * 🛡️ **$75,000 – $76,000 (Dynamic WMA Defense):** **Scenario A: Stage 1 ` **`. Initial Bull Trap zone. Monitor for order flow absorption and price hovering over the SHM 63 WMA to confirm local seller exhaustion. * 🎯 **$82,800 – $84,000 (Bear Liquidation Sweep):** **Scenario A: Stage 2 Target**. Primary short-trap ceiling; key target for taking partial profits on Stage 2 impulse legs before any secondary Stage 3 reset. * 📥 **$71,000 – $72,000 (0.50–0.74 Macro Floor):** **Scenario B: Stage 1 ` ` / Scenario A: Stage 3 Target**. High-conviction re-accumulation anchor where dynamic CIMA support and deep Fib retracement levels align for institutional absorption. * 🚀 **$100,000+ (Blue-Sky Price Discovery):** **Scenario A & B: Stage 4 Target**. Parabolic macro expansion target upon defense of the dynamic CIMA floor and clean breakout above range-high resistance. --- ### 🚨 Macro Invalidation & Full Bull Failure If price fails to hold **$71,000** on a daily closing basis, loses dynamic CIMA moving average support, and triggers an official indicator **SELL signal**, the entire bull thesis is fully invalidated. This combination signals a transition from a corrective re-accumulation dip into a high-timeframe bear market distribution. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6PPHJaUP/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdSKzcfw/ ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** *This update is for educational and technical analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Any and all financial assets are subject to market volatility and carry substantial financial risk. Always perform your own research, manage risk appropriately, and consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.*

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept
TI

The Timeline Broke, Not the Crypto Thesis

Ahead of the Fed Decision Bitcoin has just absorbed one major shock and is about to face another: **the CLARITY vote failed, and the Fed decides in hours.** On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The official vote was **49–50**, below the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. This was a procedural failure to move the bill forward, not a final vote rejecting the bill itself. That distinction matters. Near-term regulatory certainty has been pushed further out. But one failed procedural vote does not, by itself, invalidate the longer-term case for digital assets. The market reaction helps show what was actually repriced. ## The Relative Damage Tells the Story Bitcoin fell about 4% after the Senate setback. Coinbase and Circle fell roughly 9% — about twice as much. That relative performance is important. If this were primarily a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin itself, Bitcoin should be at the center of the damage. Instead, assets with much greater exposure to U.S. regulatory outcomes were hit harder. That suggests at least part of the selloff was a **regulatory-premium adjustment**. For months, markets had increasingly priced in the possibility that comprehensive U.S. crypto rules were getting closer. When that timeline suddenly became less certain, companies whose business models depend heavily on U.S. regulatory clarity absorbed the larger shock. Bitcoin was pulled lower with them. But the Bitcoin network itself did not change because of the Senate vote. So the real question is not whether CLARITY was bad news. It clearly was for the near-term policy timeline. The question is whether the market is simply repricing that expectation — or beginning a broader structural breakdown. ## Regulation Has Slowed, Not Stopped Near-term congressional passage is now significantly more difficult. But the regulatory process has not returned to zero. The SEC proposed **Regulation Crypto Assets** in August, creating a tailored framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has also said congressional legislation remains important for establishing more durable rules. So there are still two separate tracks: **Congressional legislation has slowed. Administrative rulemaking continues.** That does not guarantee CLARITY — in its current form or another form — will pass on any particular timetable. It simply means the Senate setback should be understood mainly as a delay in regulatory certainty, not evidence that the entire U.S. regulatory direction has reversed. For markets, timing matters. But timing and direction are not the same thing. ## The Fed Is the Second Test **The FOMC decision lands in hours. Markets are pricing a 25bp hike. What matters is what comes next.** The Fed releases its decision at **2:00 p.m. ET**, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at **2:30 p.m. ET**. Markets currently assign roughly a **93% probability** to a 25-basis-point increase, taking the target range to **3.75%–4.00%**. Because the hike itself is heavily priced, the bigger variables are: * whether policymakers signal further tightening this year; * how concerned they remain about inflation; * how the Fed treats elevated energy prices; * and whether Warsh keeps future policy data-dependent or signals a more persistent hiking cycle. This matters because Bitcoin is not dealing with the CLARITY setback in isolation. The market is simultaneously removing regulatory optimism, reducing leverage and preparing for tighter monetary policy. That combination can produce a much larger short-term move than any single headline. ## Is This a Constructive Reset? It is too early to call the current decline a bottom. A constructive reset has to produce evidence. Over the next **48–72 hours**, four things matter. ### 1. Bitcoin Stops Making Impulsive New Lows Bitcoin does not need an immediate V-shaped recovery. But once the FOMC reaction has been fully absorbed, continued aggressive new lows would weaken the reset interpretation. Stabilization matters more than the first rebound. ### 2. Regulatory-Sensitive Assets Stop Underperforming Coinbase and Circle were hit roughly twice as hard as Bitcoin in the initial reaction. If that gap begins to narrow, it would suggest much of the regulatory premium has already been removed. If the gap keeps widening, the repricing is probably not finished. ### 3. Leverage Cools Without Another Disorderly Flush A healthy reset removes crowded positioning and allows the market to rebuild from a cleaner base. Cooling leverage followed by stable prices would be constructive. Weak prices combined with rapidly rebuilding leverage would not. ### 4. Bitcoin Absorbs the Fed The first move after an FOMC announcement is often noisy. The better signal comes after the statement, projections and press conference have all been digested. If Bitcoin can absorb both the regulatory disappointment and the Fed without starting another impulsive leg lower, the constructive-reset argument becomes much stronger. If it cannot, the correction probably has further to run. ## What Matters From Here The CLARITY vote changed something real: **the path toward near-term U.S. regulatory clarity became harder.** But the market now has to determine how much of that disappointment was already priced during the selloff — and whether the Fed adds a second layer of pressure. For short-term traders, the next 48–72 hours matter more than the last 48. Watch price stabilization, relative performance, leverage and the post-FOMC reaction. For longer-term investors, the more important question is different: Are institutional participation, regulatory development and the integration of digital assets into the financial system actually reversing? One failed procedural vote is not enough evidence to answer yes. The current move therefore deserves respect, but not an automatic conclusion that the broader crypto thesis has failed. **By tomorrow we'll know whether this is a one-punch or two-punch correction.** **Today, the evidence says the timeline broke, not the thesis.**

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

Bitcoin Market Update: Scenario B - Fib Zone Flush & SEC Savior

Short Update: **Macro Shift & SEC Catalyst** The failed CLARITY Act vote triggered My**Scenario B**, forcing a direct flush into our **$68,000–$72,000 Golden Zone** (Fib 0.50–0.74 + CIMA Support) to wipe out overleveraged longs. With Congress stalled, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' proposed executive framework acts as the catalyst for institutional capital to absorb panic selling. **Recovery Profiles** * **V-Bottom Reversal:** Violent bounce off $68k–$72k driven by institutional bids. * **Sideways Base:** Temporary consolidation inside the Golden Zone to absorb supply before expanding toward **$100k+**. **Buy Confirmation Rules (SHM 63 WMA)** Price may drop below the SHM 63 WMA during the flush. **Do not front-run the dip.** Enter only when price reclaims the 63 WMA via: 1. Reclaim + official **SHM BUY signal**. 2. Full candle close back above the **63 WMA**. 3. Clean break and successful **retest hold** of the 63 WMA. **Bull Failure Level** A daily close below **$63,000 and CIMA MA support** paired with an official **indicator SELL signal** confirms a complete failure of the macro bull scenario into a bear market structure. Good Night & GOD BLESS

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

‘Crypto Capital of the World’: SEC Chair Expects Clarity Act to Pass This Month

Bitcoin Magazine ‘Crypto Capital of the World’: SEC Chair Expects Clarity Act to Pass This Month Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins has been pushing ahead with crypto regulation despite a delay in a vote on the Clarity Act. This post ‘Crypto Capital of the World’: SEC Chair Expects Clarity Act to Pass This Month first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo .

Bitcoin MagazineBitcoin Magazine•Mathew Di Salvo2 Sept

SEC Chair Pushes Crypto Exemptions to Bring Issuers Back to US

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins framed proposed crypto exemptions as a route for returning issuers and investment to the United States. Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda emphasized workable rules, public input, and a shift away from enforcement-led oversight. Atkins Frames Exemptions as Onshore Strategy U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins presented Regulation […]

Bitcoin.com NewsBitcoin.com News•Kevin Helms19 Aug

Crypto News Today (July 31): BTC On a Knife Edge, Australia Sues Telegram, and Binance US Eyes Prediction Markets

In crypto news today (July 31), Bitcoin climbed -0.4% overnight and is sitting just below $64,000 following a turbulent week that saw the Fed freeze interest rates on Wednesday, although SEC Chair Paul Atkins hinted at hikes to come, which has caused a slight weakening of crypto assets and stocks alike. However, Bitcoin ETF flows..

99Bitcoins99Bitcoins•Alex Ioannou31 Jul

Crypto News Today (July 29): BTC Loses $64K Following FOMC, Tether Expands into Africa, and the US Targets Iran’s Crypto

In crypto news today (July 30), Bitcoin climbed -0.5% overnight, dropping below $64,000 following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, in which a rate hike wasn’t announced but SEC Chair Paul Atkins hinted at hikes to come, causing a slight sell-off across crypto. However, crypto held up well in comparison to the US stock market, which saw $1Bn..

99Bitcoins99Bitcoins•Alex Ioannou30 Jul