JetTalks

White House

Organization · 316 articles
Share
2 sourcesCryptoBriefingCryptoNews
14 Sept

White House agrees to new ethics language in CLARITY Act

The inclusion of ethics language in the CLARITY Act may enhance bipartisan support, potentially accelerating U.S. crypto regulation progress.

Share
7 sources26 Aug

SEC moves crypto custody rule forward with White House review

11 sources19 Aug

What happens to XRP if the CLARITY Act dies in September

2 sources20 Aug

Michael Selig Calls Compute the Most Important Commodity as CFTC Seeks Comment

More trending

All coverage

page 1 of 16

TOTAL vs US Real Yields: Fed Decision Watch

Why does tonight's Fed decision matter for crypto? It isn't really about a 25 bp hike — the market has largely priced it in. The real question: what happens to US real yields and the dollar after the decision? 📊 WHERE CRYPTO STANDS (pre-decision) - Total crypto market cap: ~$2.64T (Sep 15), BTC dominance ~58%. - BTC: ~$75.7K, roughly 40% below its October 2025 all-time high. - Fear & Greed: dropped from 69 (Greed) to 51 (Neutral) in one day. - Extra headwind: the CLARITY Act failed its Senate procedural vote on Sep 15 — a major regulatory catalyst delayed. - ETF context: US spot BTC ETFs took in ~$3.5B in August, BTC's best month since Nov 2024 — but early September already saw outflows. 📊 US MACRO SNAPSHOT - Jobs: +162K in August vs 53K expected. Unemployment 4.1%. - Inflation: headline CPI 3.4%, mostly energy-driven. Core CPI 2.4%, lowest since 2021, but the monthly core print came in hot. - Retail sales (today): +1.2% vs +0.8% expected; control group +1.4% vs +0.4%. Bottom line: the economy is holding up, inflation is sticky because of oil, and the Fed is under pressure to tighten. 🔍 THE INDICATOR I'M WATCHING: DFII10 DFII10 is the 10-year US Treasury real yield — the return after expected inflation. - 2.60% (Sep 14 close), up from 2.43% a week earlier. - Nominal 10Y closed at 5.00% on Sep 15, the highest close since 2007. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1FkRtn1T/ Key point: breakeven inflation is roughly flat near 2.4%. Yields aren't rising on inflation fears — real yields themselves are climbing. Why crypto cares : BTC pays no yield. When investors can earn a 2.6% real return in a risk-free dollar asset, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding, high-volatility assets rises. Rising real yields usually mean: - Tighter dollar liquidity. - Weaker risk appetite and slower ETF inflows. - Lower tolerance for leverage → larger liquidation cascades. - Altcoins typically take a bigger hit than BTC (higher beta). 🎯 WHAT'S PRICED IN? - Futures price ~90% odds of a 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% — the first since July 2023. - Reuters poll (Sep 14): 86 of 101 economists expect a hike; 37 of 70 expect at least one more by end-March 2027. - Futures price roughly 4 hikes through July 2027. 🏦 WARSH & THE FED - July: held 9–3, three dissenters wanted a hike. - Jackson Hole: Warsh avoids advance commitments to markets, but said the Fed "has work to do" if core inflation doesn't fall fast enough. Hike odds jumped from 34% to 57% afterward. 🏛 POLITICAL PRESSURE The White House says a hike isn't necessary — that argues for a hold, not a cut. Cuts aren't in current pricing. My view: cuts could return later if the labor market weakens clearly, oil drops sharply, or 5%+ yields start breaking financing conditions. A hold tonight isn't risk-free: Deutsche Bank says it would be the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled meeting since 1994. If read as political capitulation, long-end yields could rise anyway. 💭 WHAT COULD ACTUALLY MOVE MARKETS - Dot plot: June signaled one hike in 2026. An extra hike = a tightening cycle. - Dissents and updated projections. - The reaction in DFII10, US10Y and DXY during the press conference — crypto often trades the presser, not the headline. 🌏 DON'T IGNORE JAPAN The BoJ is expected to lift rates to a 31-year high. A stronger yen can force unwinds of yen-funded carry trades — the same mechanism behind the sharp crypto sell-off in August 2024. 🔀 POST-DECISION SCENARIOS 1️⃣ Hike 25 + DFII10 stable/falling → "sell the rumor, buy the news" relief; supportive for TOTAL. 2️⃣ Hike 25 + hawkish dots + DFII10 above 2.50% → pressure; alts likely underperform BTC. 3️⃣ Surprise hold → sharp initial pump that may fade if bonds read it as soft on inflation. 4️⃣ Hike 50 → very unlikely, clear risk-off shock and liquidation risk. ✅ WHAT TO WATCH AFTER THE DECISION - DFII10: back below 2.50%, or holding above? - US10Y: sustaining above 5%? - DXY: ~99.7 — a break above 100 is a warning sign. - BTC dominance: rising dominance = defensive rotation out of alts. - ETF flows on Thursday and Friday. Easing yields and dollar = breathing room for crypto. Holding above these levels = pressure persists. ⏰ Decision: 2:00 PM ET (18:00 UTC). Press conference: 2:30 PM ET. Data as of Sep 16, 2026, before the decision. Educational content, not investment advice.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept