Bitcoin Faces Fed Message Test as Kalshi Hike Odds Reach 79%
Federal Reserve hike odds sit at 79% on Polymarket, but the Fed’s September message may matter more than the 25-basis-point move.
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Nvidia Eyes $10B of Anthropic’s IPO While Polymarket Bets on a $2T Pop
Polymarket traders give Anthropic a 66% chance of closing its first trading day above a $2 trillion market cap, even though a second contract says its initial public offering (IPO) will most likely price below that line. Two Markets, One Gap The figure Polymarket posted on Sunday comes from its Anthropic IPO closing market cap […]
Bitcoin.com News•Shiraz Jagati14 Sept
Trump concession sends CLARITY Act odds above 32% before make-or-break Senate vote
The CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law climbed above 32% as Senate Republicans unveiled their final compromise before Tuesday’s cloture vote. Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the landmark crypto market-structure legislation being enacted in 2026 to its highest level since Aug. 2 after Republicans released a 635-page final draft designed to resolve several disputes […]
CryptoSlate•Oluwapelumi Adejumo14 Sept
Clarity Act passage odds rise to 30% on Polymarket after Senate revisions
The Clarity Act's potential passage could significantly alter US crypto regulation, shifting oversight dynamics and impacting future legislative agendas.
CryptoBriefing•Editorial Team14 Sept
3% of Polymarket Traders Capture 27% of All Profits, Yale Study Finds
A Yale study finds 3% of Polymarket traders capture 27% of profits, and that edge is shrinking fast.
BeInCrypto•Darryn Pollock14 Sept
CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 60-Vote Senate Test Comes Into View
The CLARITY Act faces a 60-vote Senate hurdle on September 15, while Polymarket gives enactment just 13% odds in 2026 after 82% in February.
Ripple Board Member Who Ran Amazon Finance Is Polymarket’s New CFO
Polymarket has hired former Amazon CFO and Ripple board member Warren Jenson to oversee its finances as the prediction market expands. His responsibilities include capital strategy, long-range planning, and building the company’s financial infrastructure. Polymarket Adds Finance Leadership as Business Expands Polymarket is putting its financial and capital strategy under Warren Jenson as it scales […]
Bitcoin.com News•Kevin Helms13 Sept
Polymarket Gives Bitcoin Price a 64% Chance of Reaching $80K This Month
Traders on Polymarket put a September dip to $75,000 at 68.5% and a touch of $80,000 at 64%, pricing the downside as the likelier of the two with 18 days left on the clock. What the $80,000 Market Actually Asks Polymarket’s “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?” market resolves yes if even a single one-minute […]
Bitcoin.com News•Shiraz Jagati12 Sept
CFTC probes Polymarket trades tied to Biden pardons, Iran and Google: Report
CFTC's investigations into Polymarket highlight the growing scrutiny and regulatory challenges facing prediction markets and insider trading.
CryptoBriefing•Vivian Nguyen12 Sept
Polymarket predicts 83% chance of Fed rate hike on September 16
A likely Fed rate hike could tighten liquidity, impacting risk assets and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments.
CryptoBriefing•Editorial Team12 Sept
Quarter-Point Hike Leads Polymarket’s September Fed Pricing at 62%
Polymarket Fed rates pricing shows a 62% chance of a quarter-point hike on September 16, with no change at 39% and other outcomes below 1%.
EU Regulator Says Prediction Markets Are 'Rife With Inside Trading'
ESMA also asks why Kalshi and Polymarket block some EU countries but not others, and notes VPNs get around the blocks.
ESMA says major prediction platforms lack EU authorization, questions Polymarket and Kalshi’s partial geo-blocks
ESMA says major prediction platforms lack EU authorization, while questioning Polymarket and Kalshi's geographic restrictions.
The Block•Brian Danga11 Sept
Ethereum tests the $2,431 support as hot US inflation pressures crypto market
Key takeaways Ethereum fell 0.7% as annual US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%. Polymarket traders assigned a 62% probability to a rate hike at the next Fed meeting. ETH is testing support at $2,431 and $2,405, with resistance near $2,545. Ethereum (ETH) traded 0.7% lower on Friday as it attempted to recover from selling pressure […]
CoinJournal•Hassan Maishera11 Sept
World settles bets with an oracle. That is the third model
Kalshi settles bets with a rulebook and a person applying it. Polymarket settles them with a token-holder vote. World settles them with a data feed, no panel, no dispute window, nobody to call. Three live models now, and each one fails differently.
Polymarket appoints Amazon veteran as first CFO
Polymarket appointed former Amazon CFO Warren Jenson as its first finance chief while expanding its regulated U.S. exchange and global platform.
Riot Games holds sponsorship talks with Polymarket, Kalshi
Riot Games has discussed potential esports sponsorship agreements with prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket as the League of Legends World Championship approaches in October. Bloomberg reported on Sept. 11, citing people familiar with the private talks, that the Tencent-owned…
Flávio Bolsonaro overtakes Lula on Polymarket ahead of Brazil election
Flvio Bolsonaro's lead on Polymarket suggests shifting political dynamics in Brazil, potentially impacting future policy directions and alliances.
CryptoBriefing•Editorial Team10 Sept
The CLARITY Act Has 100 New Changes and a 60-Vote Problem
According to reports, Senate Republicans circulated a new Digital Asset Market Clarity Act draft on Thursday following the August Congressional recess. Polymarket bettors increased the odds of the legislation passing this year from 16% to 19% following the news. Lummis Says the New Draft Includes More Than 100 Changes On Thursday, Senate Banking Digital Assets […]
Bitcoin.com News•Jamie Redman10 Sept
Europe’s top regulator questions Polymarket, Kalshi’s EU access
ESMA classifies prediction market contracts as derivatives, triggering the EU's binary options ban and threatening Polymarket and Kalshi's
CryptoBriefing•Editorial Team10 Sept