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Rocketlab - The Stock Came Back to Earth, Ready to Re-Launch

NASDAQ:RKLB Rocket Lab - Rising Wedge Breakdown, 61.8% Retracement, Falling Wedge Building. One Level Decides The Entry. Rocket Lab deserves every bit of attention it is getting. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $200.3 million, up 63% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA losses narrowing dramatically and a backlog that keeps expanding. The Neutron rocket remains on track for its first launch in late 2026, which would transform the company from a small-payload specialist into a genuine competitor for medium-lift missions. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and TD Cowen have all raised price targets this year, with a consensus analyst target of $111 implying approximately 78% upside from current levels. The Iridium acquisition announced in June adds recurring satellite revenue to what was already a structurally compelling growth story. This is not hype, the fundamentals are catching up to the narrative. The Setup After an enormous rally from 2024 that unfolded within a rising wedge, the pattern played out exactly as the textbook suggests, price broke down and retraced 61.8% of the full wedge height, one of the most significant Fibonacci levels in technical analysis. That correction carved out a falling wedge, which, in contrast to the rising wedge that preceded it, typically resolves to the upside. We believe the current bounce could be the final one within the falling wedge, given the confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the white horizontal support/resistance level that has been respected multiple times historically. If macro pressure forces one more leg lower, the low $50s represents the likely final bounce zone, a confluence of that same white support and the 200-day EMA on the 3-day timeframe. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnHzDo6S/ Our Entry Signal We will not initiate a position before confirmation. A weekly close above the falling wedge resistance is our trigger, not before. Levels to Watch Entry trigger - weekly close above falling wedge resistance Key support - white horizontal level, respected multiple times Macro support - low $50s confluence with 200-day EMA on 3D timeframe Keep posted for updates.

TITradingView Ideas4h ago

Can SpaceX Monopolize Space and AI Computing?

Macroeconomics and Economic Realities SpaceX targets an astonishing $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2026. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen frames that as a forward-looking exit run-rate, not recognized full-year revenue. He also ties it to fully integrating the recently acquired AI startup Cursor. Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year. That pace annualizes to roughly $31 billion today. Massive new AI compute leasing deals drive this rapid financial expansion. The company recently signed a $1.11 billion monthly compute contract beginning in December. That agreement adds over $13 billion in annualized revenue. However, Johnsen describes almost all hosting deals as 90-day commitments with 90-day exit provisions. These amount to roughly six-month commitments rather than guaranteed multi-year backlog. The company still lost $541 million last quarter, narrowing from $1 billion a year earlier. Investors closely monitor whether subscription compute revenues can sustain current valuation growth. Geopolitics and Geostrategy Satellite constellations now serve as vital assets in modern international defense. Starlink provides sovereign nations with resilient communication infrastructure during military conflicts. Consequently, Western governments view SpaceX as an indispensable national security partner. The U.S. Department of Defense relies on specialized Starshield satellite arrays. Meanwhile, launch reliance on foreign nations has vanished across North America. Sovereign access to low Earth orbit strengthens Western geopolitical posture. However, concentrated reliance on a single private contractor creates strategic geopolitical tensions. High-Tech Industry Trends The high-tech landscape is witnessing a convergence of space launch and artificial intelligence. AI developers urgently require massive computational capacity and reliable power sources. SpaceX actively leases access to high-density GPU clusters at dedicated facilities. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion monthly for the majority of capacity at Colossus 1 in Memphis. That facility houses roughly 220,000 Nvidia processors across 300 megawatts, under contract through May 2029. Google pays $920 million monthly from October 2026 through June 2029. Those two deals alone generate about $2.17 billion monthly, a $26 billion annualized run rate. All three contracts together lift monthly external compute revenue toward $3.28 billion. Concurrently, direct-to-device Starlink capabilities threaten legacy telecom operators worldwide. Next-generation direct-to-cell satellites deploy next year, targeting commercial 5G-grade service by early 2028. This dual disruption across telecom and cloud compute reshapes global tech trends. Technology, Science, and Pharmaceuticals Reusable orbital rockets drastically reduce the cost of conducting scientific research in microgravity. Microgravity enables perfect protein crystal growth impossible under Earth’s gravitational pull. Pharmaceutical firms leverage Dragon missions to formulate advanced therapeutic drugs and biopharmaceuticals. Furthermore, the massive Starship launch vehicle carries next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. That mission marks Starship’s first deployment flight generating direct revenue. The upcoming Starship Flight 14 test flight targets late September 2026. This launch system promises unprecedented payload capacity for deep-space science and commercial payloads. Business Models and Leadership Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk built a vertically integrated commercial enterprise. SpaceX operates as a launch provider, satellite internet operator, and compute landlord. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen successfully monetized excess computing infrastructure through flexible enterprise contracts. Vertical integration allows SpaceX to build rockets, engines, and satellites in-house. This strategy drastically lowers operating costs while maintaining high gross margins. Capturing market share across telecom and cloud services accelerates total revenue diversification. Company Culture and Cybersecurity SpaceX maintains a culture centered on rapid hardware iteration and engineering speed. Fail-fast testing methodologies accelerate technological breakthroughs across all engineering departments. Furthermore, space-based communication networks demand impenetrable hardware and software cybersecurity protocols. Engine-level encryption and secure laser inter-satellite links protect user data against state-sponsored cyberattacks. Orbital communications must resist electronic jamming during geopolitical crises. Enterprise clients prioritize this high level of cyber resilience when selecting satellite networks. Patent Analysis and Future Outlook Patent filings reveal extensive intellectual property covering reusable thermal shielding and propulsion systems. Proprietary Raptor engine architecture and staging mechanisms create massive technical barriers for competitors. Advanced phased-array antenna patents protect Starlink hardware from low-cost knockoffs. Will SpaceX successfully execute its dual expansion into orbital launch and global AI compute? The company possesses unmatched technical velocity and strong market momentum. SpaceX stands poised to dominate high-tech infrastructure on Earth and in orbit.

TITradingView Ideas7h ago